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Conclusion
Because strong explosive volcanic eruptions are known to have a
pronounced impact on the climate
it is important to estimate the spatio-temporal
patterns of volcanic forcing. For the most recent eruptions instrumental
observations from satellites and ground based measurements are available.
For historical volcanic eruptions climate forcing has to be reconstructed.
Therefore we introduced a stratospheric aerosol-transport parameterization
based on nonlocal unisotropic diffusion. Exchange coefficients are obtained
from recent studies of stratospheric mass transport.
Strength, date and latitude of an eruption have to be known
to apply the parameterization. We take this
information from the
series,
although the estimated
strength of eruptions is not accurate, especially for eruptions
a long time ago. Therefore,
we correct the
with respect to observations
for the strongest eruptions of the last century. While the
parameterization is linear with respect to the strength of the eruption,
errors in the estimated strength have no impact on the spatio-temporal
structure of
. However, latitude and season of an eruption
strongly affects the aerosol distribution and therefore the impact on the
climate.
If the required information is available
we are able to reconstruct spatio-temporal patterns of
for
volcanic eruptions not included in the calibration of the parameterization
and even for historic eruptions.
For most of the historic eruptions only the year of the eruption is known.
This has an impact on the temporal structure of the forcing
(Figure 7). Nevertheless,
as we have shown in an example (Table 7),
the three year average forcing is not necessarily affected
significantly by this lack of information.
The knowledge of volcanic stratospheric optical depth
is neccessary to estimate its climate
impact, but the most important information is the forcing itself. It
depends dramatically on the length of a ray path through the layer and the
undisturbed radiation uptake. Also a pronounced aerosol cloud
has no dramatic influence if it exists only in a winter polar region where
there is nearly no radiation supply. Thus we introduce a radiation-transfer
parameterization which takes into account these properties
in their latitudinal and seasonal dependence to provide
estimates of volcanic aerosol forcing.
We hope that our investigations of the volcanic climate forcing will
be helpful for other researchers to study the relationship
between volcanic forcing
and the observed climate response.
Next: Acknowledgements
Up: Parameterization of Spatio-temporal Patterns
Previous: Case studies
ich
2000-01-20